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weekly market analysis

The FTSE has dropped a little this week from 12067.8 to 12042.9. We remain above 12,000, but the loss this level of pessimism could bring back the park. This week there has been no major events. August is over, and the stock has risen sharply so far this month with little volume. My forecast for the remainder of the year is as follows. In the short term we may see reductions up to 11,750 points or even a little more (so it would be good time to buy) with a rise after that could overcome even the 12,500 points.
Anyway, has to remember that some companies have risen sharply in the last 2-3 years. In case of descent, are probably the most down. So you have to be selective when investing.
Recommendations: Short Term Buy
Metrovacesa (less than a month to end the saga of the OPA and apart from having a significant differential, the value could go up if it is confirmed that the soap gets to the end. NOTE: After the takeover, total sales. Buy
Medium term: REPSOL (listed very cheap) Long-term Purchase
: TELEFONICA (attractive dividend in the future)
Sale Short Term: ALTADIS given the strength of 38 euros. Recommendation to buy euros in 36-36.5.
Sale Short Term: ENDESA (heats when there is news of takeover bids and then cooled)
Sale Short Term: BBVA (very vertical climb on speculation OPA)

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We have floor trading week 19/08/2006

This week, the Ibex-35 index closed at 12,067.8 points. He has overcome the psychological barrier of 12,000 points and some experts believe can travel up to 12,500 points. Even if this were so, the walk is 3.5% higher. Is it worth the risk? My humble opinion is no. The problems that led to the stock market down in May and June, still remain. When the stock market goes up, it seems that we forget all the problems facing the economy such as inflationary pressures, high price raw materials, geopolitical tensions, etc, but those problems are still there. If the stock has risen in August is having low volume because it is easier to "make up" (and download).
IBEX I still think that can correct up to 11,600 points (if there are no problems in the economy) and up to 11,100 if repeated fears of the past months.

Regarding the OPA, this time he has had to BBVA. There is talk of 20 euros per share. My recommendation is to use the heater and the recent surge to sell. Metrovacesa
The OPA continues without significant changes.

regard to the recommendations of this week are:
Avoid the banking sector as which is the sector that has risen. Keeping it
Repsol and Telefónica for the long term, although in the short term we may see cuts, especially in REPSOL that is in a bearish resistance. If the above can go a lot (if it helps pretroleo price), but if you do not rule out cuts than to 22 euros. Ferrovial also
and discard bet for Endesa (we think it has uploaded what I had to go and what the OPA is to long). Back out ALTADIS
positions (it is almost 38 euros). By following the takeover rumors, you can keep going up, but in recent months has been moving sideways between 36 and 38 euros. Therefore, buying and selling 36 to 38.
From a Iberia recommend technically, since he has broken the downtrend, but caution, the problems remain.
I can not do many more recommendations, with the IBEX above the 12,000 point there is nothing cheap. Prisa and Sogecable may have been the hardest hit. Outside the IBEX
should continue to BME. Is at historic lows (just takes a few weeks of history.) Is 27.48. The feeling of the value is bad and may continue to fall. If it closes above the high of the previous day could be a buy signal, but at very short notice in a pricipio. Although the sector also rumors CORPORATE bag that could shoot the medium-term value.

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This week, the Ibex 34 closed at 11,777.3 points. NH Hoteles will enter the IBEX-35 on August 17 replacing Arcelor. NH Hotels, based in Madrid, operates 240 hotels in 16 countries throughout Europe, Latin America and Africa.
short term and given the low volume usually found in the summer months, I still think the stock may fall a bit more with an initial target of 11,600 points for the IBEX.
Regarding the bid for Metrovacesa, Sacresa had already launched a bid for 20% of the company to 78.1 euros supply has improved to 26% for 90 euros. The CNMV will decide in September whether to accept the offer or not. The market thinks they will not accept it (now is at 70.6 Metrovacesa euros). The CNVM and rejected a similar offer for less than a month. What does seem clear is that Sacresa has no intention of withdrawing from the takeover war.
Moreover, Rivera continues his bid for 26% of the company at 80 euros a share. It seems that it will not have problems Rivero to continue as president of the company because the courts have rejected the request for suspension of the tender offer by Sacresa. The analyst recommends buying a few shares (not more than 100) to go to the takeover and win the price differential.
As for recommendations, I like for the long term Telefonica (12.95), Altadis (37.35) where there are still rumors of takeovers and Prisa (12.66) that has been hard hit in the last session.
Other interesting options which I recently castigadaa are Repsol (21.99) that would have to wait and see if it exceeds 22.50-23 to signal strength, Sogecable (25.17) with a clear objective of 28 euros, but could return at 20 if you re having problems with television rights and Ferrovial (60.65) punished for the London event this week as contralateral Ferrovial BAA is the company responsible for the airports in London. Actions
not recommend are, though Iberia is cheap, the problems that may continue in the future. The increasingly expensive oil, drivers increasingly want more rubble, the low cost airlines competing with it, fear new attacks, etc. Also do not recommend Endesa (26.55). The highest bid is the EON to 25.1 and I think the thing can stretch much, and people do not like waiting (eg 77.50 Metrovacesa reached the same bid now and is now 70.6). Conclusion
, you can go public (although I would expect an adjustment of up to 11,600 points IBEX) but still very selective.

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8/12/2006 bag held 04 - 08-2006

The Ibex 34 (remember from Arcelor is out of the selective cautalarmente until it becomes clear what their OPA) has closed the week at 11,934.1 points.
At these levels, and given the way the world (the invasion of Israel interest rate rise of 3%, high oil prices, etc) there is little to gain and much to lose. Now analysts say nothing, but if we see a crash like 3 months ago, analysts say. "This could be seen coming because of geopolitical tensions, high interest rates and high oil prices."
For me this next week, we watch as the IBEX 34 drops to 11,600 (last resistance now becomes support) and how much the IBEX will climb to the 12,500 now and the end of the year. Yes, you can make money in the bag, but the risk involved, makes it worthwhile.
Looking inside the market, we must remain vigilant to the takeover on Metrovacesa. Closed the week at 71 euros and up to 80 (bid price) is a propitious for possible differences among arbitrageurs who still have not purchased Metrovacesa (do not think that much). By the way, Rivero OPA could increase from 26% to 38%.
We'll see what happens on Monday. More Takeovers
outstanding as I said last week.
now, many of the selective values \u200b\u200bare near yearly highs.
A Repsol has a hard time approaching the 23 euros, despite the rise in oil prices, is giving more grief than joy. I recommend buying long term because it has the lowest PER of its sector and could be a candidate to be offeree. Telefonica
annual maximum is 13.39. They will have traveled to the 13.60 and even 14.10 (price before to buy O2 in November last year). I would maintain long-term TEF, but in the short term would sell part.
short term, the bombings may be Prisa (which is very cheap to 12.85) and Sogecable has fallen from 34 to 20 for the television rights issues. At the end seems it has reached an agreement. Sogecable currently trading at 25.74 and at least until the tour is 30 euros.
We could also see a rise of Cintra in the short term.
Discover bombing can be much more risky to always, Jazztel. In a year has fallen from 1.10 euros to 0.38 euros. Everyone expects a rebound to come in and usually it bounces up a few days to track down. There has risen 7.5% from 0.40 to 0.43. For me too much risk and to be as low as 2.5% lose between purchase price and the sale (the minimum difference is one cent).
And to finish a thought. International conflicts affecting financial markets, it is true, but it affects innocent families lost their homes and loved ones and not even know what the Dow Jones or Eurostock 50.
Peace, please.