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The FTSE closed at 12,389.5 points, thanks to the strength of the electrical. It is rumored that one could offer up to 35 euros for Endesa. I personally like a bit silly. Another
stupidity is seeing Metrovacesa to 96 euros, but there is a simple explanation. The two takeover bids covered the 46% of the company, a percentage similar to float the company. What happened? Well, everyone has sold and is no role in the market. Someone has decided to buy up the value to 18 euros in 2 days.
My recommendation is to sell if someone is being Metrovacesa shares. Recommendations
purchase: REPSOL, and that eventually the price of oil is rising.
the moment I stop doing stock analysis until something interesting happens.
In general I think the bag is very high and that to enter you must be very selective. At the end of the year, we can see even IBEX at higher levels than today's, but the risk involved makes it not worthwhile.
We are close to 12,800 who are the highs of the last 6 years. And while it is true that the situation is not the same (6 years ago the PER was 23 years and is now 13 years) the vertical rise of the last 3 years suggests that equities have to take a breath.

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Stock Market Analysis Stock Market Analysis week

Today we

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week 09/16/2006 09.10 / 2006

The Ibex 35 closed at 12,081.7 points, a drop of more than 100 points over the previous week. It seems that to the psychological level of 12,000 has endured this week. If it breaks, we go down to 11,800 which would be a good area to buy.
The CNMV has rejected Sacresa's bid for Metrovacesa to 90 euros a share. Sacresa now has until 13 to decide whether to withdraw its offer of 78.1 euros a share or service. Rivero has another offer to 80 euros per share can not be removed. The term the takeover ended the day 20. The recommendation is to buy to go to the OPA.
More recommendations:
Tefon buy about 12.80 - 13 euros. REPSOL
buy about 21.80 - 22 euros. ALTADIS
buy about 36 - 36.50 euros. FERROVIAL
buy about 58 to 59 euros. Avoid
Endesa (we traded very high) and real estate in general (except Metrovacesa on the issue of the OPA).
The oil has fallen sharply this week, as an interesting option would be to buy shares of oil companies hoping for a rebound in oil prices. Surely sooner or later end up the oil at levels of 75 euros a barrel.

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Stock Market Analysis week 01/09/2006 08/26/2006

I will be brief. The IBEX 35 closed the week at 12,193 points, nearly 130 points higher than last week. You can keep climbing, but I think the party is over and it's time to leave for home. If you are someone you need to invest, my recommendations are:

Altadis, shop at 36-36.5 and that the rise in tax on snuff, may penalize the short term but long term, competition from discount brands removed.

Repsol, purchasing 22.5. A possible increase in oil prices may lead to the value to 24 euros. In the short run may have more problems with Bolivia.

Iberia, buy at 1.95. We believe that early recovery levels above 2 euros.

BME has been hard hit since it went public and seems to have stopped falling. Buy in 27.5

Metrovacesa, purchase approximately 50-100 stocks to attend the bid (there is one to 80 euros for 26% of the capital and another 78 euros for 20% of the capital, has requested the extension to CNVM 90 euros for 26% of capital).

Note: I write this because I know no one reads it. If by chance you read, you have to be clear that if you invest is your responsibility. I do not charge for this, nor guarantee any profit. This I do for fun. If you read the previous post, you will see that sometimes rightly and sometimes rightly so.

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weekly market analysis

The FTSE has dropped a little this week from 12067.8 to 12042.9. We remain above 12,000, but the loss this level of pessimism could bring back the park. This week there has been no major events. August is over, and the stock has risen sharply so far this month with little volume. My forecast for the remainder of the year is as follows. In the short term we may see reductions up to 11,750 points or even a little more (so it would be good time to buy) with a rise after that could overcome even the 12,500 points.
Anyway, has to remember that some companies have risen sharply in the last 2-3 years. In case of descent, are probably the most down. So you have to be selective when investing.
Recommendations: Short Term Buy
Metrovacesa (less than a month to end the saga of the OPA and apart from having a significant differential, the value could go up if it is confirmed that the soap gets to the end. NOTE: After the takeover, total sales. Buy
Medium term: REPSOL (listed very cheap) Long-term Purchase
: TELEFONICA (attractive dividend in the future)
Sale Short Term: ALTADIS given the strength of 38 euros. Recommendation to buy euros in 36-36.5.
Sale Short Term: ENDESA (heats when there is news of takeover bids and then cooled)
Sale Short Term: BBVA (very vertical climb on speculation OPA)

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We have floor trading week 19/08/2006

This week, the Ibex-35 index closed at 12,067.8 points. He has overcome the psychological barrier of 12,000 points and some experts believe can travel up to 12,500 points. Even if this were so, the walk is 3.5% higher. Is it worth the risk? My humble opinion is no. The problems that led to the stock market down in May and June, still remain. When the stock market goes up, it seems that we forget all the problems facing the economy such as inflationary pressures, high price raw materials, geopolitical tensions, etc, but those problems are still there. If the stock has risen in August is having low volume because it is easier to "make up" (and download).
IBEX I still think that can correct up to 11,600 points (if there are no problems in the economy) and up to 11,100 if repeated fears of the past months.

Regarding the OPA, this time he has had to BBVA. There is talk of 20 euros per share. My recommendation is to use the heater and the recent surge to sell. Metrovacesa
The OPA continues without significant changes.

regard to the recommendations of this week are:
Avoid the banking sector as which is the sector that has risen. Keeping it
Repsol and Telefónica for the long term, although in the short term we may see cuts, especially in REPSOL that is in a bearish resistance. If the above can go a lot (if it helps pretroleo price), but if you do not rule out cuts than to 22 euros. Ferrovial also
and discard bet for Endesa (we think it has uploaded what I had to go and what the OPA is to long). Back out ALTADIS
positions (it is almost 38 euros). By following the takeover rumors, you can keep going up, but in recent months has been moving sideways between 36 and 38 euros. Therefore, buying and selling 36 to 38.
From a Iberia recommend technically, since he has broken the downtrend, but caution, the problems remain.
I can not do many more recommendations, with the IBEX above the 12,000 point there is nothing cheap. Prisa and Sogecable may have been the hardest hit. Outside the IBEX
should continue to BME. Is at historic lows (just takes a few weeks of history.) Is 27.48. The feeling of the value is bad and may continue to fall. If it closes above the high of the previous day could be a buy signal, but at very short notice in a pricipio. Although the sector also rumors CORPORATE bag that could shoot the medium-term value.

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Analysis Analysis Analysis

This week, the Ibex 34 closed at 11,777.3 points. NH Hoteles will enter the IBEX-35 on August 17 replacing Arcelor. NH Hotels, based in Madrid, operates 240 hotels in 16 countries throughout Europe, Latin America and Africa.
short term and given the low volume usually found in the summer months, I still think the stock may fall a bit more with an initial target of 11,600 points for the IBEX.
Regarding the bid for Metrovacesa, Sacresa had already launched a bid for 20% of the company to 78.1 euros supply has improved to 26% for 90 euros. The CNMV will decide in September whether to accept the offer or not. The market thinks they will not accept it (now is at 70.6 Metrovacesa euros). The CNVM and rejected a similar offer for less than a month. What does seem clear is that Sacresa has no intention of withdrawing from the takeover war.
Moreover, Rivera continues his bid for 26% of the company at 80 euros a share. It seems that it will not have problems Rivero to continue as president of the company because the courts have rejected the request for suspension of the tender offer by Sacresa. The analyst recommends buying a few shares (not more than 100) to go to the takeover and win the price differential.
As for recommendations, I like for the long term Telefonica (12.95), Altadis (37.35) where there are still rumors of takeovers and Prisa (12.66) that has been hard hit in the last session.
Other interesting options which I recently castigadaa are Repsol (21.99) that would have to wait and see if it exceeds 22.50-23 to signal strength, Sogecable (25.17) with a clear objective of 28 euros, but could return at 20 if you re having problems with television rights and Ferrovial (60.65) punished for the London event this week as contralateral Ferrovial BAA is the company responsible for the airports in London. Actions
not recommend are, though Iberia is cheap, the problems that may continue in the future. The increasingly expensive oil, drivers increasingly want more rubble, the low cost airlines competing with it, fear new attacks, etc. Also do not recommend Endesa (26.55). The highest bid is the EON to 25.1 and I think the thing can stretch much, and people do not like waiting (eg 77.50 Metrovacesa reached the same bid now and is now 70.6). Conclusion
, you can go public (although I would expect an adjustment of up to 11,600 points IBEX) but still very selective.

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8/12/2006 bag held 04 - 08-2006

The Ibex 34 (remember from Arcelor is out of the selective cautalarmente until it becomes clear what their OPA) has closed the week at 11,934.1 points.
At these levels, and given the way the world (the invasion of Israel interest rate rise of 3%, high oil prices, etc) there is little to gain and much to lose. Now analysts say nothing, but if we see a crash like 3 months ago, analysts say. "This could be seen coming because of geopolitical tensions, high interest rates and high oil prices."
For me this next week, we watch as the IBEX 34 drops to 11,600 (last resistance now becomes support) and how much the IBEX will climb to the 12,500 now and the end of the year. Yes, you can make money in the bag, but the risk involved, makes it worthwhile.
Looking inside the market, we must remain vigilant to the takeover on Metrovacesa. Closed the week at 71 euros and up to 80 (bid price) is a propitious for possible differences among arbitrageurs who still have not purchased Metrovacesa (do not think that much). By the way, Rivero OPA could increase from 26% to 38%.
We'll see what happens on Monday. More Takeovers
outstanding as I said last week.
now, many of the selective values \u200b\u200bare near yearly highs.
A Repsol has a hard time approaching the 23 euros, despite the rise in oil prices, is giving more grief than joy. I recommend buying long term because it has the lowest PER of its sector and could be a candidate to be offeree. Telefonica
annual maximum is 13.39. They will have traveled to the 13.60 and even 14.10 (price before to buy O2 in November last year). I would maintain long-term TEF, but in the short term would sell part.
short term, the bombings may be Prisa (which is very cheap to 12.85) and Sogecable has fallen from 34 to 20 for the television rights issues. At the end seems it has reached an agreement. Sogecable currently trading at 25.74 and at least until the tour is 30 euros.
We could also see a rise of Cintra in the short term.
Discover bombing can be much more risky to always, Jazztel. In a year has fallen from 1.10 euros to 0.38 euros. Everyone expects a rebound to come in and usually it bounces up a few days to track down. There has risen 7.5% from 0.40 to 0.43. For me too much risk and to be as low as 2.5% lose between purchase price and the sale (the minimum difference is one cent).
And to finish a thought. International conflicts affecting financial markets, it is true, but it affects innocent families lost their homes and loved ones and not even know what the Dow Jones or Eurostock 50.
Peace, please.

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How much water on the planet? Analysis of the bag

this question may seem difficult to answer, but as a mathematician I'm going to try to give an approximation. Since over 99% of the planet's water is salty, we will calculate only the water in the seas and oceans. Searching
google "average depth ocean" we know more or less the oceans have an average depth of 3,900 kilometers.
Earth has a mean radius of 6371 km (this also can be found on google by putting "average radius of earth).
Let's imagine that the planet are two areas of land, with a radius of 6371 km and another where there are 6371 water +3.9 = 6374.9 km.
Let's calculate the volume of water for different volumes.
4 / 3 x pi x (6374.9) ³ - 4 / 3 x pi x (6371) ³ = 1,990,470,000 cubic miles.
Keep in mind that the sea does not cover the entire surface of the Earth (as we assumed), but covers the 5 / 7 parties. So we 1,990,470,000 * 5 / 7 = 1,421,764,200 cubic kilometers of water.
a cubic kilometer is 1,000,000,000 cubic meters, is one trillion liters. Therefore
on earth is about 1,422 trillion liters.
As my friend would say Alfonso, water for all.

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29/07/2006

The IBEX 35 is already close to 11,900 points. Everyone thought that the IBEX going to move in the range from 10,800 to 11,600. Going beyond 11,600 has been rapidly to 11,900.
And the OPAS again be the order of the day. We have seen
Endesa has become a topic of heated by Gas Natural's bid and EON and climbed within one week from 24 euros to almost 27 (The EON bid is 25.4 and the Natura Gas less than 20 euros) so it is clear that the market expects the war continued and both EON OPAS with Gas Natural offer higher prices.
Another value that has been a war of OPA has been pizza delivery. In a year has risen from 1.62 to 3.19. High returns in the short term but not long term so long considering that in 1998 the action came close to 10.50 euros. Yesterday
finally approved the takeover of its president on Metrovacesa Rivero. 80 euros per share for 26% of the company. Sacresa Currently, the majority social Metrovacesa has a pending bid by 20% to 78.1 euros.
Sacresa has 24.2% of the company and launched in early year a tender offer for 20% of the company to send more and dismiss the current President, Joaquin Rivero. Rivero
asoción with friends and has launched a bid for 26% of the company to 80 euros. Joaquin clear not to become unemployed. Any worker would have done the same.
What nobody knows is what will now Sanahuja family (owners of Sacresa).
One option is to leave things as they are and that each go to the bid you want. In this case the theoretical price of 76 euros serious action. Below this price worth going to buy stocks and shares half of each bid (with the idea to rush the fixed tranche of 25% as possible). If Sacresa retires and go with their actions (24.2% of the company today) to the OPA de Rivero, the things would ugly for the rest of Metrovacesa shareholders, and that only those who have few shares (less than 150 I think) would gain money the rest could only sell a few shares at 80 euros and the rest eat them (it is estimated that after the takeover Metrovacesa can drop to 55 euros). In this case the theoretical value of the stock before the bid would be 68 euros (average between 80 and 55).
The third and most interesting option for shareholders than Sacresa launched a bid for 100% of the capita for between 85 and 90 euros. The problem is that he has no money to do so, and this would be the only way to improve Rivero offer, because it can not launch a takeover bid by 26% because if have to buy all 50.2% of the company and in this case the CNMV requires that the bid is for 100% of the company. Another interesting option is
URBIS. It has launched a takeover bid by 100% to 26 euros. The stock is 25.6. Who have money and do not know what to do with it. URBIS to buy shares below 26 and to wait for the OPA.
There are many companies with takeover rumors, but that'll talk another day.

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bad thing is the

And every time I have it more difficult youth to find a flat. In Alicante and ask you to almost 30 million by one of 2 bedrooms and a bathroom. And if we of 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, we're going to almost 50 million. If you want second hand, maybe you find it for just over 30 million, to which we must add 7% tax plus TRANSMISSION kilo or two to reform (if you buy refurbished and ask for more than 40 kilos). OPV
What? It's a silly fool. For example, if you enter promotions www.pisojoven.es there you will see there. If the phone call, I will say that the promotions have not gone on sale and the day I decide to get promotion to the sale, first come gets the floor. Well I've been going to the website and calling until I learned Elche through sources I can not reveal, which is already sold out. So why mislead people? It's like IVVSA floor. I know people that you know is going to have an apartment there. And the draw?. It's all shit.
And besides, a floor of OPV should cost 1447 euros per square meter. Or about 21.5 million a floor of 90 meters. They are asking 28 million. Black money, of course. But nobody does anything about it. Breaking the black money would be as easy as it was the council who copper and then page to the promoters. But it sucks that black money "to God."
the end the floor of VPO, they take 4 enterao the buy to rent to students (in theory if you get caught you remove the floor) or sell 33 million (it cost 10 years ago 8 million) asking for a bit silly in black money (because the OPV not be resold above a price fixed by law), while those who need a floor to desist VPO see that everything is a mafia, it's all crap and you end up paying more for the VPO that a free income.
Of course, this 3 bedroom flat who asked for 250,000 euros, still remains the poster. Makes me want to call and say: "What about capullín, still has not sold."
Flats That sucks!, People Yuck! Which country sucks!

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The stock goes public (part 2)

After Friday July 14 BME (Bolsas y English markets) come out stock has not done anything but lose. On Friday, 21 closed at 27.60 euros with a drop of almost 11% over the auction price are the 31 euros. Today it appears that will be the first day to come up. He is now 27.84.
the long term may be a good investment, but you have to remember some things.
1 º Many people want to sell at 31 euros "to get their money" and therefore now has a potential upside limited. "For purchases in the short term, it is better to wait in excess of 31 euros.
2 º Soon BME will not have the monopoly of the bag. The brokerage firms will sell shares between them, and this clearly hurt a lot to BME, and his whole business is based on brokerage fees.
3 º now traded only on 30%, while the remaining 70% owners have pledged not to sell in 6 months. What will happen in 6 months? I do not advise investing more than 6 months.
So now is not the value or the long or the short term.
I think I've become more pessimistic about the value as before, is that the truth is there are many bargains in the stock market right now to focus on BME. Examples
... I am not an analyst, but for the long term I like TEF (which in 2009 will be 1 euro dividend per share and now trades for 13 euros we stopped) and Banco Santander (which seems going to stop buying and banks that may be good for trading, while BBVA intends to continue buying) and REPSOL quoted some attractive rates after the mess of Bolivia.
For the short term, I'll Metrovacesa (which is 69 with a bid for the 26% to 80 euros) and BBVAI, a new mutual fund that replicates contributed to the IBEX 35. IBEX is now in the 11,400 and I think over the summer will move into a trading range between 11,100 and 11,600, and an expanded range of 10,800 and 12,100 points. In the 10,300 is the long-term trend of IBEX, and would be a good place to buy in the short term.

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The stock goes public

began last Thursday a public company 30% of the capital of BME (Bolsas y Mercados English). This company is a holding company that includes the stock of Madrid, Barcelona, \u200b\u200bValencia, Bilbao, and Meff Latibex (those of equity derivatives) among others.
I was about to buy. My view is that high or low the stock market, brokers must always pay a commission. Ie BME always wins. When told that the maximum price was 33 euros ajudicación, I canceled my order.
The problem of the IPO (public offerings) is that you do not know what price you buy. The purchase price range was between zero and 33 euros per share. I had to decide whether to cancel the order or not before knowing the final price.
As those who decide the price are selling, it is usually closer to 33 than to zero. If BME had come to 33 euros, this would be a PER of 27 years (the PER is the time when the company earns per share, the stock is worth at this moment). Well, for me is high. Some companies like Google that have a PER of 40 years, but people expect to have more benefits in the future and lower the PER and others as having a PER Zeltia 200 years. Others, like Terra or Jazztel, simply does not have PER, because benefits have never had. The lowest PER bag has it (well, it was before the appearance of the friend EVO) Repsol with a PER of 8 years.
The case, which ultimately BME se ajudicó a 31 euros por acción. El primer dia de cotización, empezó a 30 (una caida de más de un 3%) y aunque estuvo casi todo el dia sobre los 30.50, al final cerró a 29.75. Hoy, lunes 17 de Julio, ha bajado un poco más hasta los 29.60.
Me parece un valor interesante para entrar por debajo de 30 euros por acción. Pero le veo dos incovenientes.
El primero es sobre su futuro. Las bolsas de todo el mundo no paran de comprarse unas a las otras y aunque ahora BME tiene el monopolio sobre España, quien sabe si lo tendrá dentro de 10 años. Pero al igual que otras empresas de bolsas pueden entrar en España, BME puede salir fuera de España.
El segundo es un factor psicologico. Ahora mismo all who bought BME think they have screwed up and want to sell. Some now before it falls over and a lot are waiting to reach 31 to recover the money. This is what happened to Telefonica Moviles. Since leaving a handful of years ago to 11 euros, the price has never recovered. Whenever I approached this price, people sold to recover their money. Now going to get 4 shares of Telefonica for every 5 phones. And thanks to this Mobile has overcome some days the 11 euros, since the price is 0.8 times that of Telefonica. BME
recover I think the 31 euros by the end of summer and not have the problem you experienced cellphone.
Eye, think not that BME is a ball is a value for grandparents. It is an established business and do not expect to rise much like it did Terra or Google, if you may be more parececer Banking sector or electricity, and can act as safe haven (when the stock market tanks is when there is more volume, and that is when most wins BME).

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Alicante in the fires of it's chaos . But as an image (or rather four images) are worth a thousand words I have the photos.
I guess the owners of the garage, have a discount and pay the tax when they reduce week of fires. Although not technically a vehicle cabin.

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Today I heard on the radio Alfredo Perez Rubalcaba. He said that the motorcycle license exam and will be optener only those over 16 (and not 14 as now).
I've thought about this long dede, but also more. If the scooters can not pass the 45 km per hour (before it went to 40 and 45) why some go to 120? Or because if to drive a normal car and you need a license to drive a car 50 cc (reaching 70 per hour) you do not need?. Do these drivers do not need to know the traffic signals? The reason is same as always, money. You have to sell motorcycles. But we have finally reached some sanity. Many young people have their life with this new law, though they will never know. Are the things that have the statistics. Alfredo Perez Rubalcaba
also said that the school will be a subject of road safety.
Now if only they really speed limit for mopeds to 45 hours of course would save many lives.

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